One Minute Preview: Knockout Cup Edition

Today is but a short one, and will be mostly taken up previewing the midweek action between Coventry and Belfast as they meet in the first of two cup-competition battles...this one being the KO Cup appetiser for the Challenge Cup semi later this month. Tonight sees the Giants in their home from home at Dundonald for the first leg, with the return at the Skydome tomorrow.

So, let's break this thing down, MC Hammer style:

Goalies: Belfast will have Nathan Craze in goal, after a promise they made when signing him that these games at least would see him as guaranteed starter. Meanwhile, Coventry will, naturally, have starter JF Perras in net. In theory, this import-v-youngish-Brit battle is a mismatch. However, Craze has acquitted himself well thus far, earning himself a reasonable 89.8% save percentage in his eight games played. However, you have to give the edge to the Blaze on this one...

Defence: The simple answer may surprise some. On statistics alone, the Coventry defence is better. Over the season (League and CC Cup games) the much-maligned Blaze unit has conceded ten less goals than that of the Giants. However, that balances itself out slightly when you consider that the Giants have been playing in front of two goalies whose save percentages are both around 89%, compared to Perras' of 91.8. Certainly when it comes to going forward, the Giants are more effective, with Belfast having provided one more goal and two more assists from the blue-line when comparing the current players on each unit. This picture is skewed even more when you consider that, for the Blaze, over half of the goals and assists of the unit as a whole have been provided by one player in Jon Weaver-if the Giants can close him down, then the Blaze d suddenly looks all but toothless going forward. Edge Giants.

Forwards: This is where it gets really tricky. The Giants have four forwards who have scored over fifteen goals, and three of those are over twenty. Goals are spread evenly throughout the forward lines, The equivalent figures for the Blaze? Three and one. The Giants have also scored five more goals as a team, with players like Mlacolm MacMillan not soring many but setting up a fair few (5+32). It's just about even, this one...and could well be decided by which unit is more productive as a whole. Even.

Other factors: The powerplay units and their penalty-killing counterparts could be crucial. Belfast, mainly thanks to the efforts of Paul Deniset, lead the league in shorthanded goals, with the Blaze close behind (10 and 9 respectively), and also outscore the Blaze on the powerplay, 46 to 41. The Blaze desperately need to stay out of the box, as the Giants have had thirteen of their players score a powerplay goal this season to Blaze's ten-a true reflection of their scoring threat with a man extra. With one of the most lethal finishers in the league facing them on the penalty-kill also in Paul Deniset, the PP unit can't afford some of the mistakes that the Blaze PP unit has always had a history of making-particularly with its seeming one-dimensional tactic at times of "pass to point (preferably Weaver), shoot into traffic, repeat" of this season.

Quite frankly, this is a meeting which is impossible to predict. Results between the two sides so far this season suggest that the Giants have the edge, winning two of the three meetings this season including the only one at the Skydome so far. However, that's to be expected with the teams so evenly matched-I foresee two games of nip-and-tuck hockey, with both sides needing to exploit any opportunities they have to the full. I can see both teams winning their home legs...but one thing's for sure-we're in for two tense nights of hockey...